TFM Morning Update 09-11-2023


  • Corn is trading a bit higher this morning but has remained relatively rangebound ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report.
  • The general expectations are that yield will be decreased tomorrow with production being lowered by about 125 mb, but exports may also be lowered, so it is unknown how ending stocks will be affected.
  • The Indian Prime Minister is seeking a global initiative with G-20 nations to increase the ethanol mix in gasoline to 20%.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds increasing their net short position by 6,565 contracts leaving them net short 93,913 contracts.


  • Soybeans are higher this morning and soy products are following the same pattern where soybean meal is higher but soybean oil is lower.
  • There has been a big break in world veg oil prices over the past few weeks which has seen soybean oil fall by nearly 10% in the past 3 weeks.
  • For tomorrow’s USDA report analysts are expecting a decline of 0.8 bpa for yield which represents a 65 mb production decline. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 213 mb, but it is possible that acreage is increased.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds selling 8,175 contracts which reduced their net long position to 82,810 contracts.


  • Wheat futures are trading lower this morning and the Chicago December contract made new contract lows overnight on stagnant export sales.
  • Canada’s July 31 wheat stocks fell to 3.58 mmt compared to 3.66 mmt during the same period last year, while durum fell to 0.4 mmt from 0.57 mmt.
  • Wheat is sensitive to moves in the dollar seeing as export sales are crucial right now, and recently the dollar has rallied in a big way making new 6-month highs last week.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds buying back a small portion of their short position by 1,200 contracts leaving them net short 78,681 contracts.


Amanda Brill

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