TFM Morning Update 09-11-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher to start the day with December up 1-1/2 cents at $4.18-1/2 while March is up 1-1/4 at $4.35-3/4. Corn prices have moved higher since last month’s contract low amid fears of lower yield.
Trade estimates for Friday’s report peg U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.311 billion bu (vs USDA’s 1.305) and 2025/26 at 2.011 billion bu (vs USDA’s 2.117), with crop size seen at 16.516 billion bu, below the USDA’s August estimate of 16.742.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 2,400k tons with an average guess of 1,583k tons. This would compare to 1,836k a week ago and 667k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans higher to start the day after dropping to support levels at the 50-day moving average nearly every day for the past week but then bouncing higher off it. November soybeans are up 5-3/4 cents to $10.31 while October meal is up $0.50 to $284 and October bean oil is up 0.34 cents to 50.83 cents.
Trade estimates slightly undercut USDA figures, with U.S. 2024/25 soybean carryout seen at 328 million bu (vs USDA 330), 2025/26 at 288 million bu (vs USDA 290), and production at 4.271 billion bu (vs USDA 4.292).
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 950k. This would compare to 795k last week and 1,474k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are weaker this morning with December Chicago wheat down 1-3/4 to $5.13-1/4 and December KC wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $5.04-1/2.
Trade estimates for Friday put 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout at 865 million bu (vs USDA 869) and global ending stocks at 261.1 mmt (vs USDA 260.1).
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 300k and 650k tons with an average of 433k tons. This would compare to 318k last week and 465k a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill