TFM Morning Update 09-11-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly this morning as the market positions ahead of today’s WASDE report. December corn is 5-1/2 cents lower at $5.28-1/4, while March corn is 5-3/4 cents lower at $5.43-1/2.
Market analysts expect USDA to lower the U.S. corn yield to 178.1 bushels per acre in the September WASDE report. If realized, total production would decline by roughly 230 mb from the August estimate, likely tightening 2026/27 corn ending stocks.
The corn market will also be watching Friday’s September FSA acreage data, with current expectations near 88.6 million harvested acres. An increase in corn acreage could offset part of any yield reduction and keep 2026/27 carryout relatively comfortable.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning as the market gives back a portion of yesterday’s gains. November soybeans are 15 cents lower at $13.17-1/4, while January soybeans are 14-3/4 cents lower at $13.32-1/2.
Estimates ahead of today’s 11 a.m. CT WASDE report call for 2026/27 U.S. soybean ending stocks to decline to 291 mb, down from 320 mb last month, while 2025/26 ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged.
Harvested acreage is expected to hold steady, while the average yield estimate is projected to decline to 52.4 bushels per acre from 52.7 bushels per acre last month.

The wheat complex is trading slightly lower across the board this morning. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 5-1/2 cents lower at $7.35-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 8 cents lower at $8.10-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 2-1/4 cents lower at $7.60-1/4.
The average pre-report estimate for 2026/27 U.S. wheat ending stocks comes in at 720 mb, up 3 mb from last month if realized. Globally, 2025/26 wheat ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged at 280.2 MMT, while 2026/27 stocks are projected to decline 0.1 MMT to 273.2 MMT.
Renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war have weighed on wheat prices, though continued Russian attacks are keeping Black Sea supply risks in focus. A strike on Dnipro Thursday damaged a vegetable oil facility owned by U.S. agribusiness Bunge, highlighting the ongoing threat to regional grain and oilseed infrastructure.

Matthew Lucas