TFM Morning Update 09-12-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following yesterday’s crop progress report that showed deterioration slightly less than trade expectations.
The good to excellent rating fell by 1 percentage point to 52%, the seventh lowest rating over the past 36 years. 34% of the crop is mature compared to 24% a year ago.
The hot and dry temperatures that began in mid-August took a toll on the crop and also pushed it to maturity quicker which likely resulted in ears that have had less time to put test weight into the ears.
As US prices become more competitive with Brazil, export inspections have begun to increase gradually. 24.5 mb were inspected last week with 8.8 mb to China.

Soybeans are also lower this morning following yesterday’s crop progress with both soybean meal and oil lower as well. Markets are a bit risk-off ahead of the WASDE report.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed good to excellent ratings falling by 1 percentage point to 52% while trade was expecting a decline between 2-3 points.
For tomorrow’s USDA report analysts are expecting a decline of 0.8 bpa for yield which represents a 65 mb production decline. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 213 mb, but it is possible that acreage is increased.
China is boosting their outlook for soy imports in 23/24 to 97.25 mmt on robust demand from the livestock sector.

Wheat is lower again this morning with the December Chicago contract making another new low in the overnight session.
Offers from Russia continue to fall while the US dollar rallies, and this combined with a crash in Russian currency makes them the best deal in wheat export business.
The spring wheat harvest is now rated 87% good to excellent which is up in a big way from last week’s 74%. Winter wheat plantings are now at 7% compared to 1% last week.
Russia’s agriculture ministry has once again raised their 2023 total grain harvest to 130 mmt from 123 mmt.

Amanda Brill