TFM Morning Update 09-12-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following yesterday’s crop progress report that showed deterioration slightly less than trade expectations.
  • The good to excellent rating fell by 1 percentage point to 52%, the seventh lowest rating over the past 36 years. 34% of the crop is mature compared to 24% a year ago.
  • The hot and dry temperatures that began in mid-August took a toll on the crop and also pushed it to maturity quicker which likely resulted in ears that have had less time to put test weight into the ears.
  • As US prices become more competitive with Brazil, export inspections have begun to increase gradually. 24.5 mb were inspected last week with 8.8 mb to China.


  • Soybeans are also lower this morning following yesterday’s crop progress with both soybean meal and oil lower as well. Markets are a bit risk-off ahead of the WASDE report.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed good to excellent ratings falling by 1 percentage point to 52% while trade was expecting a decline between 2-3 points.
  • For tomorrow’s USDA report analysts are expecting a decline of 0.8 bpa for yield which represents a 65 mb production decline. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 213 mb, but it is possible that acreage is increased.
  • China is boosting their outlook for soy imports in 23/24 to 97.25 mmt on robust demand from the livestock sector.


  • Wheat is lower again this morning with the December Chicago contract making another new low in the overnight session.
  • Offers from Russia continue to fall while the US dollar rallies, and this combined with a crash in Russian currency makes them the best deal in wheat export business.
  • The spring wheat harvest is now rated 87% good to excellent which is up in a big way from last week’s 74%. Winter wheat plantings are now at 7% compared to 1% last week.
  • Russia’s agriculture ministry has once again raised their 2023 total grain harvest to 130 mmt from 123 mmt.


Amanda Brill

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