TFM Morning Update 09-13-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after a lower close yesterday caused by a slightly bearish WASDE report.
Yesterday’s report featured a decline in yields as expected, but pressure came from an increase in acreage that was larger than trade expectations.
The hot and dry conditions are pushing the crop towards an early harvest, and because of this, ear weights would be expected to come up short.
Ethanol production is being estimated slightly higher than last week at 1.015 m b/d with stockpile estimates seen at 21.485 m bbl vs 21.621 a week ago.

Soybeans are unchanged to lower this morning after a selloff caused by yesterday’s USDA report. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
The reaction to yesterday’s report was a bit of a headscratcher considering that yields were dropped and ending stocks were lowered to an extremely tight 220 mb, the lowest ending stocks in 8 years.
Bearish notes came from a decline in crush by 10 mb which is interesting considering crush demand has been strong, and a decline of 35 mb in exports which is likely reasonable with Brazil’s crop.
Brazil’s total soy exports are expected to reach 99 mmt in 2023, up significantly from a month ago, and soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.16 mmt in September vs 2.06 mmt the previous week.

Wheat is trading higher this morning after a higher close yesterday reversing off of contract lows and hopefully finding a bottom.
World wheat production estimates fell by 6 mmt yesterday as many countries struggle with poor weather conditions impacting crops which could be causing large speculators to short cover.
Ukraine has said that Russian drones attacked areas south of the Odesa region near the Izmail port on the Danube River overnight, and seven people were injured.
Also overnight, Russia has said that Ukraine attacked the Sevastopol Shipyard in Crimea causing a fire and wounding at least 24 people.

Amanda Brill