TFM Morning Update 09-14-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is still just 8 cents from the yearly lows following Tuesday’s bearish USDA report.
  • Ethanol stocks fell by 2.1% to 21.171m bbl while analysts were expecting 21.485, and plant production was 1.039m b/d vs survey averages of 1.015m.
  • The USDA’s Ukrainian corn and wheat production was seen increasing by 2 mmt and it is believed some of that grain is being exported via the Danube River and by rail into Europe.
  • Corn export sales today are not expected to be large, but sales will need to average 7.4 mb per week higher than a year ago to hit the new crop USDA export estimate.


  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning helped along by higher soybean meal while soybean oil trades lower. Soybeans have been relatively rangebound for the past month.
  • August NOPA soybean crush in the US is seen at 167.802 mb. If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the July crush but up 1.4% from the previous year.
  • Export sales are expected to be modest today between 40 and 50 mb. This comes after the USDA lowered soybean exports in Tuesday’s WASDE.
  • India’s August vegetable oil imports rose to 1.87 mmt from 1.77 mmt in July which should be friendly to soybean oil and other veg oils.


  • After two days of higher closes, wheat is beginning the day lower as speculators look to sell rallies.
  • The Argentinian wheat crop estimates were but by 0.6 mmt for 23/24 due to dryness and is now seen at 15 mmt. Argentina is not the only country dealing with wheat production issues.
  • The USDA dropped world wheat ending stocks in the Tuesday report, but Russia’s crop seems to keep growing and they continue selling wheat cheaper than other offers.
  • The UN secretary will discuss the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia next week, but it seems unlikely that Russia will change its stance.


Amanda Brill

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