TFM Morning Update 09-14-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is still just 8 cents from the yearly lows following Tuesday’s bearish USDA report.
Ethanol stocks fell by 2.1% to 21.171m bbl while analysts were expecting 21.485, and plant production was 1.039m b/d vs survey averages of 1.015m.
The USDA’s Ukrainian corn and wheat production was seen increasing by 2 mmt and it is believed some of that grain is being exported via the Danube River and by rail into Europe.
Corn export sales today are not expected to be large, but sales will need to average 7.4 mb per week higher than a year ago to hit the new crop USDA export estimate.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning helped along by higher soybean meal while soybean oil trades lower. Soybeans have been relatively rangebound for the past month.
August NOPA soybean crush in the US is seen at 167.802 mb. If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the July crush but up 1.4% from the previous year.
Export sales are expected to be modest today between 40 and 50 mb. This comes after the USDA lowered soybean exports in Tuesday’s WASDE.
India’s August vegetable oil imports rose to 1.87 mmt from 1.77 mmt in July which should be friendly to soybean oil and other veg oils.

After two days of higher closes, wheat is beginning the day lower as speculators look to sell rallies.
The Argentinian wheat crop estimates were but by 0.6 mmt for 23/24 due to dryness and is now seen at 15 mmt. Argentina is not the only country dealing with wheat production issues.
The USDA dropped world wheat ending stocks in the Tuesday report, but Russia’s crop seems to keep growing and they continue selling wheat cheaper than other offers.
The UN secretary will discuss the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia next week, but it seems unlikely that Russia will change its stance.

Amanda Brill