TFM Morning Update 09-15-2023

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as it stays in its trading range with both bull and bear arguments keeping prices gridlocked.
Corn is set to fall about three cents on the week following the USDA’s fairly bearish report which saw an increase in planted acres.
The El Nino pattern has a 95% chance of lasting in the Northern Hemisphere from January through March and could bring drought to India and Australia but more rain to Brazil and Argentina.
In Argentina, the 23/24 corn planting area is held at 7.3 million hectares and planting is 2.2% complete.

Soybean are trading lower this morning and are on track for a slight loss on the week with lower soybean meal and slightly higher soybean oil.
With the US carryout now at a very tight 220 mb and yields seemingly shrinking, focus will be on the upcoming planting progress report for South America.
US August soybean crush was seen at 168.7 mb which would be 1.9% higher than the previous year but down 2.7% from a month ago.
US drought exposure for both corn and soybeans increased as of September 12 with soybean crops in drought rising by 5% and reaching 48%.

Wheat is slightly mixed this morning with Chicago wheat slightly higher but KC and Minn slightly lower. Overall price action in the grain complex is quiet.
The Argentinian wheat crop improved following much needed rains and is now rated 24% good to excellent vs 18% last week.
A new ship has left the Ukrainian port of Odesa after Russia backed out of the deal in July. This is the fifth ship to leave after the end of the deal.
Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 13.5% from last year and is now at 29.5 mmt with wheat accounting for 22.15 mmt of that number, up 15.4% from last year.

Amanda Brill