TFM Morning Update 09-17-2024

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning after posting small losses for yesterday’s close. December corn remains above the 50 and 21-day moving averages with support at those levels.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating in corn increasing from last week by one point to 65% while trade was expecting a decline to 63%. 45% of the crop is mature which compares to 29% a week ago and 9% is harvested which compares to 5% a week ago.
Funds have been covering their short position in corn in a big way and have bought back over 125,000 contracts in the past three weeks. Between Friday and yesterday, funds bought back an estimated 13,000 contracts.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning but have been bouncing around either side of unchanged in the overnight trade. Large anticipated ending stocks are keeping some pressure on prices while dryness in the US and Brazil has been supportive. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans slipping by one point to 64% as trade was expecting, but it was still well above last year’s 52%. 44% of the crop is dropping leaves which compares to 25% a week ago and 6% of the crop is harvested.
With US soybean prices so inexpensive, Argentina has begun buying the commodity. The USDA reported the first sale of US soybeans to Argentina since 2019 and the amount was 88,400 mt. This comes as the US anticipates a record harvest.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning after posting big losses yesterday. There has been a lot of volatility in the wheat market lately as tensions seem to be increasing in regard to Russia and potential escalation.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the winter wheat crop is 14% planted which compares to 6% last week and 13% a week ago. The spring wheat crop is reportedly 92% harvested which compares to 85% a week ago and the 5-year average of 90%.
Funds have been covering their short positions over the past few months and are now short just fewer than 29,000 contracts of wheat. They have bought back an estimated 5,000 contracts over the past 5 days.

Amanda Brill