TFM Morning Update 09-17-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning and have been rangebound over the past few weeks unable to take out the contract high from the beginning of the month. December corn is down 1-1/4 cents to $5.33 and March is down 1-1/4 cents to $5.47-1/2.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales between 800k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,388k tons. This would compare with 1,873k a week ago and 1,232k a year ago.
US ethanol stocks in the weekly petroleum report rose by 0.1% to 25.22m bbl, and analysts were expecting 24.947m. Plant production was seen at 1.099m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.078m.

Soybean futures are mixed this morning and are trading quietly despite another drop in crude oil prices. November soybeans are unchanged at $13.20-1/2 while March is down 1/4 cent to $13.45. October soybean meal is up $6.30 to $367.20, and soybean oil is down 0.76 cents to 68.43 cents.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales between 900k and 2,600k tons with an average guess of 1,775k tons. This would compare to 2,635k last week and 856k a year ago.
Next week, President Trump will meet with President Xi and potentially agree to cut tariffs on ag products. At this point, China has purchased over half of its committed soybeans and has an additional 17 billion dollars left to buy.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are weighing on corn and soybeans. December Chicago wheat is down 11-1/2 cents to $7.19, KC is down 10-1/2 cents to $7.89, and Minn is down 5 cents to $7.52-1/2.
Russia reportedly targeted supply routes in Ukraine last night striking targets that included a dry-cargo ship near Odesa. Russia said it also hit the Artsyz electrical substation which supports the Izmail port. Some strikes hit energy targets despite their recent agreement that they would not target energy infrastructure.
SovEcon has stated that the Black Sea wheat risk is “substantially underpriced” as the market acts like routes will quickly recover, but there has been no clear path to normal shipping or a cease in hostilities.

Amanda Brill