TFM Morning Update 09-19-2023


  • Corn is trading lower this morning and has made new lows for 2023 as harvest begins and some producers see better yields than expected.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 51% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is down from 52% last week, and the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
  • 54% of the crop is considered mature and 9% has been harvested primarily in southern states. While the weather has caused early maturation, some producers are reporting average or better yields.
  • In Brazil and Argentina, light rains are forecast through next week which should prove favorable for the next corn planting.


  • Soybeans are trading lower along with both soybean meal and oil as harvest nears and exports business trickles in, but not quite to the levels needed.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that good to excellent ratings for the soybean crop were unchanged at 52% while trade was expecting a 1 to 2 point decline.
  • 54% of the crop is dropping leaves which is ahead of the 5-year average of 43%, and a signal that harvest will begin soon.
  • Low water levels on the Mississippi River are impacting basis negatively for many producers, but rains forecast in the northwestern Plains and Midwest through Saturday could make their way to the river to raise levels in the next two weeks.


  • All three wheat contracts are lower again this morning and remain near their lowest prices this year as Russia continues to dominate the export market by undercutting prices.
  • Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report showed only 13.5 mb of wheat inspected with most of that number spring wheat and white wheat.
  • 93% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 87% last week. 15% of winter wheat has been planted which compares to 7% last week.
  • The USDA has estimated that world production would fall short of world demand by 8.5 mmt as most countries apart from Russia struggle to put out solid production, but other analysts say that the USDA is underestimating the size of the Russian crop.


Amanda Brill

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