TFM Morning Update 09-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning but has remained relatively rangebound for the past two weeks with prices well off their lows. After yesterday’s 50 point rate cut by the Fed, equities are higher this morning, and money may be flowing out of commodities and into stocks.
Today, the USDA will release its export sales report, and corn sales are expected to fall in a range between 550k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 870k tons. This would compare to 667k tons last week.
In Ukraine, the amount of corn that will be available to export for the 24/25 marketing year is expected to fall by 15 to 17 mmt as a result of lower production caused by poor weather in parts of the country.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but like corn, remain in a very tight trading range. November futures have encountered some resistance at the 50-day moving average. Soybean meal is trading lower to start the day while soybean oil is slightly higher.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in soybeans see exports falling in a range between 550k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,215k tons. This would compare with 1,474k last week and would make sense given the higher number of Chinese purchases recently.
In Brazil, some rains have fallen in the southern regions, but the larger growing areas are in the central region of the country and are suffering from extremely low soil moisture levels with rain not in the forecast until October. It will be crucial for those rains to materialize.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way down. Overall, futures have been in an upward trend since their contract lows in August and have seen funds exit a large chunk of their short positions.
Today’s export sales report is expected to show wheat sales in a range between 300k and 650k tons with an average guess of 450k tons. This would compare to last week’s 475k tons.
Strong U.S. wheat exports and developing dryness in key wheat producing areas around the globe have prompted the Managed Money funds to trim their net short position in wheat by nearly 50,000 contracts in the last few weeks.

Amanda Brill