TFM Morning Update 09-20-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning following yesterday’s strong price action higher.
US weekly ethanol production set to be released today is expected to come in lower than last week at 1.025 million barrels per day according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The slowing global economy will likely weaken commodity prices according to some global economists. higher interest rates meant to tame inflation seem to be the main factor contributing to the slowed growth.
In Brazil, light rains are forecast through next week which should be favorable for first crop corn planting which accounts for less than 25% of total Brazilian corn production.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning along with soybean meal as value buyers step in after the recent drop in prices.
Storm clusters across the Midwest late this week and into the weekend will likely delay early harvest progress. The rains may benefit late planted or double crop beans.
Soybean planting in the southern Brazilian state of Parana has reached 6% complete up 5% from last week according to state agency DERAL.
Chinese importers have booked at least 20 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina over the past two weeks for delivery to China during October, November and December. This is typically a period dominated by the US.

All three wheat contracts are higher this morning after poking down to new lows recently.
Above normal rainfall and temperatures are expected for most of the Plains States in the most recent 8-14 day outlook from the CPC, this should benefit early planted winter wheat.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology suggests El Nino conditions are likely to persist into the Spring of 2024 leading to yield reductions in their wheat crop.
EU soft wheat exports from July 1st through September 15th have reached 6.32 million tons, down 8.7 million tons from a year ago.

Amanda Brill