TFM Morning Update 09-22-2023


  • Corn is slightly higher this morning following yesterday’s selloff in the grains, but trade remains tightly rangebound.
  • Weather models are showing showers in the western and Southern Plains as well as Illinois, and heavy rains are expected to fall in the Dakotas through Oklahoma next week.
  • After some early dryness in Brazil, rains are expected to begin falling next week which could be a start to their rainy season and could be favorable for planting.
  • CONAB estimated Brazilian corn production lower after reducing acres and it is now seen at 119.8 mmt which is down from the USDA’s estimate of 129.0 mmt.


  • Soybeans are trading higher after yesterday’s selloff and the Nov contract is trying to get back above that 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.
  • Argentina’s soybean planting is set to cover 39.54 million acres, the same as last year, but another severe drought is not expected, so a much larger crop than last year is expected.
  •  U.S. incentives to boost consumption of more environmentally friendly fuel has created a new market for used Chinese cooking oil, worth almost $390 million in the last 12 months.
  • US soybeans in drought conditions have increased by 5 points as of September 19 and now reach 53%.


  • All three wheat products are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s selloff.
  • Yesterday, the entire grain complex was lower and this was likely a result of the Fed’s decision to keep rates higher for longer than expected which caused the dollar to rally which makes US exports less competitive.
  • A second grain ship carrying 18,000 tons of wheat has left the Ukrainian Black Sea port for Egypt, and three more cargo ships are heading to the port to pick up grain bound for China.
  • Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 14% from last year and 22.19 mmt of wheat have been harvested, up 16% year over year.


Amanda Brill

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