TFM Morning Update 09-22-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning as the market approaches the lower end of its recent trading range. December corn is 7-1/2 cents lower at $5.29-1/4, while March corn is 7 cents lower at $5.44.
Some traders are watching for potential Chinese purchases of U.S. corn ahead of this week’s meeting, though any buying could be driven partly by goodwill rather than economics. The spread between CBOT and Dalian corn futures has narrowed by nearly $2 since June to less than $3 per bushel.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop at 66 MMT, up from 64 MMT last year. Planting progress is currently reported at 11.1% complete.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning. November soybeans are 9 cents lower at $13.16-1/2, while January soybeans are 8-3/4 cents lower at $13.32-1/2.
Traders are looking ahead to this week’s meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders, with expectations that discussions could focus on extending the current trade truce and making progress on existing tariffs.
Brazilian soybean exports are projected at 8.02 MMT in September, according to ANEC, down 0.3 MMT from its previous estimate. If realized, exports would decline 18.25% from August but remain 9.25% above year-ago levels.

The wheat complex is trading lower as the market continues to reduce Black Sea risk premium. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 10-1/2 cents lower at $7.06-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 11-1/2 cents lower at $7.69-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 6-1/4 cents lower at $7.30.
Wheat futures are under pressure as renewed diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine raise hopes for progress toward restoring Black Sea shipping. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said talks with U.S. President Donald Trump focused on efforts to end the war, including the possibility of a bilateral ceasefire covering energy infrastructure.
Zelenskyy also said Ukraine was prepared to consider any format for an energy truce with Russia, while noting that no discussions had taken place regarding a unilateral halt to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has continued to disrupt Black Sea grain shipments, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources.

Matthew Lucas