TFM Morning Update 09-23-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning but remains in its recent rangebound pattern trading just above its 50-day moving average. Some harvest progress was stalled in the eastern Corn Belt due to rains over the weekend but should dry out quickly.
In Brazil, the summer corn crop planting is underway despite the extremely dry weather. 12% of the crop has been planted do far which compares to 9.7% the previous week. In Parana, a key growing state, 46% of the crop has been planted. Rains are expected to fall in the first week of October.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds surprisingly increasing their net short position by 2,680 contracts leaving them short 134,814 contracts. This came despite a small rally in corn.

Soybeans are trading sharply higher this morning and are near the very high end of their recent trading range and are also above their 50-day moving average. Support is coming from both soybean meal and oil which are higher.
Today’s higher price action is likely a result of the reports of mixed yields that have been coming in over the weekend. In some areas, the stretch of hot and dry weather did have an impact on yields that the USDA may need to address eventually.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 8,186 contracts. They are now net short 122,415 contracts but have reduced the length of their short position over the past few months.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as prices rebound from last week’s selloff. Rain fell this weekend in part of Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma, but the amounts were slightly less than what was expected.
In Argentina, some wheat farmers are reportedly abandoning their wheat fields due to extremely dry conditions and poor soil moisture levels. The country has received some rain in the South, but the northern regions have been dry along with Brazil.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 4,364 contracts of wheat which has left them net short just 25,033 contracts. If this trend continues, funds could wind up with a net long position before long.

Amanda Brill