TFM Morning Update 09-24-2024

CORN

Corn is mixed this morning with the front months slightly higher and deferred contracts lower as prices cool down from yesterday’s rally across the grain complex. Yesterday’s export inspections report was strong and provided support along with fund buying.
In Brazil, the summer corn crop planting is underway despite the extremely dry weather. 12% of the crop has been planted do far which compares to 9.7% the previous week. In Parana, a key growing state, 46% of the crop has been planted. Rains are expected to fall in the first week of October.
There have been reports that China is set to announce a large stimulus package to help grow its economy which has been bullish towards grain prices as it may impact the amount of ag products the import from the US.

Soybeans are trading higher today on momentum from yesterday’s rally that saw prices at their highest levels since July. Dryness in Brazil and potentially lower yields in the US were supportive. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans unchanged from last week at 64%, and trade was looking for a one-point decline. 13% of the crop is harvested which compares to 6% a week ago and the average of 8%.
Yesterday’s higher price action is likely a result of the reports of mixed yields that have been coming in over the weekend. Funds likely do not want to be over leveraged in their short positions if there is a threat of lower yields.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC trading slightly lower while Minneapolis wheat trades slightly higher. Futures were strong yesterday but wheat appears to be cooling off like the rest of the grain complex in today’s trade. China’s proposed stimulus package was supportive to wheat as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the spring wheat harvest at 96% complete which was slightly higher than the average trade guess, compares to 92% last week, and the 5-year average of 95%.
In winter wheat, 25% of the crop is reportedly planted which is below the average trade guess of 27%, compares to 14% a week ago, and the average of 24%. 4% of the crop is now emerged which compares with 6% a year ago and the 5-year average of 5%.

Amanda Brill