TFM Morning Update 09-25-2023

CORN

Corn is unchanged to slightly lower to begin the week on little fresh news and the ongoing harvest. Corn remains rangebound.
Today’s crop progress will likely show a solid advancement in harvest, but there is rain forecast in the eastern Corn Belt which could slow things down.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is in full swing, but sales have been on the low end as many purchasers already have large inventories.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials continuing to sell corn by 9,906 contracts increasing their net short position to 144,815 contracts.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning while soybean meal trades higher but soybean oil lower. The gains in crude oil have begun to level off around the 90 dollar a barrel level.
With harvest set to begin in the US and prices depressed, the same has started to spill over in Brazil, and prices in the spot market there have fallen over the past few days.
The USDA has forecast that US ending stocks will come in around 220 mb although many think it will be tighter than that, but traders are more focused on the combination of Brazilian and US harvest.
Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 27,983 contracts reducing their net long position to 45,832 contracts.

Chicago wheat is trading higher this morning but KC and Minn wheat are mostly unchanged, hovering above recent lows.
There was more fighting between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend with Ukraine saying Russian drones damaged another grain storage facility near Odesa.
India has said that it sees no wheat shortage and may increase sales to control prices. Previously, India curbed exports to manage food inflation which was up 9.9% from the previous year.
Last week’s CFTC report showed funds tacking further onto their short position selling 12,666 contracts and increasing the net short position to 96,805 contracts.

Amanda Brill