TFM Morning Update 09-25-2024

CORN

The corn market is quietly trading near the bottom of its tight 3-cent range in the December contract on technical, follow through selling from yesterday’s bearish reversal.
Later today, the EIA will release its weekly ethanol production report for the week ending Sept. 20. The average trade estimate sees daily production dropping slightly to 1.046 million barrels per day, with stocks rising to 23.896 million barrels.
Next week on September 30, the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. The average trade guess according to a Bloomberg survey, estimates US corn stocks as of Sept. 1 at 1.846 billion bushels, up 36% from last year’s 1.360 bb.

Soybeans are lower this morning after trading higher earlier in the evening on the strength of a firm opening in soybean oil. Both meal and oil have turned lower and are weighing on the soybean market.
A bill has been introduced in Congress, called the Farmers First Fuel Incentives Act, that would make sure only biofuels made from domestic feedstocks be eligible for the 45Z tax credit. This legislation is also expected to extend the 2-year credit to 10 years, according to Sen. Roger Marshall.
Next week, the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. The average trade guess according to a Bloomberg survey, estimates US soybean stocks as of September 1 at 347 million bushels, up 31% from last year’s 264 mb.

The wheat complex is lower across all three classes, with the Minneapolis contracts leading the way. Follow through technical selling from yesterday’s bearish reversals appears to be primary culprit. Both December KC and Minneapolis are approaching support near their 50-day moving averages.
Ukraine’s grain exports for the July-June 24/25 season are near 9.8 million metric tons, as of Sept. 25, according to their ag ministry, and of that total, 5.6 mmt is wheat. Additionally, farm associations and the Ukrainian government have agreed to limit wheat exports to 16.2 mmt.
According to a Bloomberg survey, the average trade guess for Sept. 1 wheat stocks in next week’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report, is 1.992 billion bushels, a 13% increase from last year. Production is estimated to come in at 1.983 bb.

Scott Masters