TFM Morning Update 09-25-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher to start the day after losing 2 cents. Today, December futures are back above the 100-day moving average and are up 2-1/2 cents to $4.26-3/4 while March is up 2-3/4 cents to $4.43-3/4.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,383k. This compares to 1,232k tons a week ago and 535k tons a year ago.
Strong export demand continues while corn crop projections trend lower. Analysts and satellite data point to dry weather and disease pressure reducing yields toward the trendline average. Even so, expanded acreage from the past two WASDE reports suggests the crop could still set a record.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning following positive Argentinian news. November is up 5-1/2 cents to $10.14-1/2 while March is up 5 cents to $10.49-3/4. October soybean meal is down $0.10 to $271.60 and October soybean oil is up 0.47 cents to 49.76 cents.
Overnight, the Argentinian government announced that the countries goal of 7 billion USD was fulfilled, and today, the export tax for soybeans will return to 26%, making US soybeans less expensive by comparison.
Estimates for today’s export sales see soybeans between 500k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 950k tons. This would compare to 925k a week ago and 1,438k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day. December Chicago wheat is up 5-3/4 cents to $5.25-1/2 while December KC wheat is up 6 cents to $5.12-3/4. HRW wheat is up 3-1/4 cents to $5.71.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 417k. This would compare to 388k a week ago and 169k tons a year ago.
The Canadian Grain Commission reported that samples of the Canadian durum wheat crop show signs of sprouting and mildew, attributed to wet weather. Earlier this month, Statistics Canada estimated the durum crop at 6.53 million metric tons, which, if realized, would be the largest harvest since 2020.

Amanda Brill