TFM Morning Update 09-26-2023


  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower after yesterday’s small gains. In December, the low of 5.73-1/2 was tested but held.
  • There was a large sale reported yesterday to Mexico of 41.3 mb for 23/24 and 24.1 mb for 24/25 which provided support to the market.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed the corn harvest at 15% complete compared to 9% a week ago and the 5-year average at 13%.
  • 95% of the corn crop is dented and 70% is mature compared to 54% last week. Good to excellent ratings actually rose by 2 points to 53%.


  • Soybeans are continuing to move higher after yesterday’s gains and are about two cents from climbing back above the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower in the front months but higher in deferred contracts.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 12% of soybeans are harvested compared to 5% last week, and compared to the 5-year average of 11%.
  • 73% of the soy crop is dropping leaves compared to 54% last week, and good to excellent ratings fell from the previous week by 2 points down to 50%.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report came in at 17.7 mb which was higher than a week ago but still a small number which shows that Brazil has maintained the competitive advantage for exports.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC moving higher, but KC unchanged to lower. Yesterday, some support came from weekend attacks on Ukrainian ports by Russia.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed that 96% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 93% last week, and winter wheat 26% planted compared to 15% last week. 7% of the winter wheat crop has emerged.
  • The Canadian wheat crop is now seen at 29.8 mmt which is a decline of 13% from the previous season and 3.4 mb from the August report.
  • Ukraine’s winter wheat and rapeseed planting is well ahead of  2022 with 2.2 m hectares expected to be planted compared with 1.67 last year.


Amanda Brill

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