TFM Morning Update 09-26-2023 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower after yesterday’s small gains. In December, the low of 5.73-1/2 was tested but held.
There was a large sale reported yesterday to Mexico of 41.3 mb for 23/24 and 24.1 mb for 24/25 which provided support to the market.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed the corn harvest at 15% complete compared to 9% a week ago and the 5-year average at 13%.
95% of the corn crop is dented and 70% is mature compared to 54% last week. Good to excellent ratings actually rose by 2 points to 53%.

Soybeans are continuing to move higher after yesterday’s gains and are about two cents from climbing back above the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower in the front months but higher in deferred contracts.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 12% of soybeans are harvested compared to 5% last week, and compared to the 5-year average of 11%.
73% of the soy crop is dropping leaves compared to 54% last week, and good to excellent ratings fell from the previous week by 2 points down to 50%.
Yesterday’s export inspections report came in at 17.7 mb which was higher than a week ago but still a small number which shows that Brazil has maintained the competitive advantage for exports.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC moving higher, but KC unchanged to lower. Yesterday, some support came from weekend attacks on Ukrainian ports by Russia.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed that 96% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 93% last week, and winter wheat 26% planted compared to 15% last week. 7% of the winter wheat crop has emerged.
The Canadian wheat crop is now seen at 29.8 mmt which is a decline of 13% from the previous season and 3.4 mb from the August report.
Ukraine’s winter wheat and rapeseed planting is well ahead of 2022 with 2.2 m hectares expected to be planted compared with 1.67 last year.

Amanda Brill