TFM Morning Update 09-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but remains near the upper range of its recent range as trade considers the dry weather in Brazil which could impact production. Yesterday, December corn reached its highest level since July of $4.18.
Over the past three days, funds have bought back an estimated 25,000 contracts of corn, and it appears as if they may continue this trend especially if Brazil does not receive the rain expected in its forecast.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn in a range between 600k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 938k tons. This would compare to last week’s 847k tons. Corn export demand has improved recently.

Soybeans are continuing their upward momentum and are higher again this morning. They are on track for a fourth consecutively higher close and are currently up nearly 50 cents on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
The dryness in Brazil has been more bullish for soybeans than for corn, and over the past three days, funds have bought back an estimated 35,000 contracts of soybeans. Meteorologists have said that the La Nina pattern that was expected this summer may see effects pushed into the fall which would be a problem for Brazil.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 900k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,438k tons. This would compare with last week’s 1,756k tons.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and have been in an upward trend all week. For the week, December Chicago wheat is up by 26 cents and has nearly wiped out all of last week’s losses.
Ukraine’s grain exports for the July-June 24/25 season are near 9.8 million metric tons, as of Sept. 25, according to their ag ministry, and of that total, 5.6 mmt is wheat. Additionally, farm associations and the Ukrainian government have agreed to limit wheat exports to 16.2 mmt.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 375k tons. This compares to 258k tons last week.

Amanda Brill