TFM Morning Update 09-27-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher, just above the 20-day moving average this morning, following yesterday’s small losses.
Overseas, China’s corn futures were trading lower, down 19 yuan.
Weekly ethanol production will be released by the EIA today at 10:30 am, with production estimated to be slightly higher at 983k barrels per day, and stocks lower at 21.479 mil. barrels.
USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday. While there is variability in corn usage for this report, expectations are for overall grain stocks to be slightly higher than last year’s totals for this report.

Overnight, November soybeans broke through resistance at the 100-day moving average and are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil.
Higher palm oil and crude oil are offering support to soybean oil as the contract recovers from recent losses due to a supply glut of green diesel that has threatened to diminish producer’s profits.
Weather conditions in Brazil have been hot and dry in the central and northern regions but is expected to change to a wetter pattern later this week with more chances for rain. Planting in Brazil is estimated to be 1.9% complete.
According to Anec, Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 6.23 mmt in September, versus 3.58 mmt in September 2022.

The wheat complex is trading mixed this morning with Chicago mostly lower, while both K.C. and Minneapolis are mixed.
The wheat markets continue to chop around and consolidate as traders square positions ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report.
A third ship is said to have left the Chornomorsk port in Ukraine, traveling via their own “humanitarian corridor.” These vessels run the risk of Russian attacks, with new reports of a strike against grain facilities in Ismail, an export area along the Danube River.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that the country’s grain exports have plunged more than 50% in September to 1.75 mmt as their Black Sea and Danube River ports have seen continued Russian attacks.

Amanda Brill