TFM Morning Update 09-28-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after closing higher yesterday, but trade is still relatively quiet and rangebound. December corn ended last week higher and is on track for another gain on the week.
  • Tomorrow is the grain stocks report and the supply and demand report is on October 12, and corn will need to avoid bearish numbers on both to continue higher.
  • Corn has a wide range of expectations for today’s export sales report with estimates between 475k tons and 1,200k tons. The US is not quite competitive with Brazil yet, but exports to Mexico and Canada have been good.
  • In Brazil, ethanol sales have increased at the gas station by nearly 11% in August year over year showing the growth in demand for biodiesel.


  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s rally where November soybeans broke but failed to close above the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are lower.
  • It is likely that there was farmer selling yesterday as soybeans rallied 30 cents off of Monday’s low, but ending stocks are still tight and yields are being estimated below the USDA’s guess.
  • In today’s export sales report, soybeans are estimated in a range of 500k tons to 1,200k tons. Sales this week have been sluggish.
  • Palm oil prices are expected to climb on concerns of the El Nino dry weather pattern in Indonesia for 2024.


  • All three wheat products are trading lower again this morning after posting losses yesterday. Chicago wheat in December remains towards the bottom of its trading range.
  • Discussions to reinstate the Black Sea grain deal are ongoing, but there have been no set dates with Russia. Despite record wheat exports, the secretary of the UN Conference on Trade and Development has said that distribution routes have changed, so small and medium sized countries are still suffering with supplies.
  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has kept the 2023 grain crop forecast unchanged at 57 mmt with oilseed output at 22 mmt.
  • Export sales estimates for wheat in today’s report are between 250k and 550k tons, but overall wheat exports have remained sluggish.


Amanda Brill

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