TFM Morning Update 09-29-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but has been trending higher over the past two weeks with 6 higher closes out of the 8 last trading sessions.
  • Today the USDA grain stocks report will be released, and with yields having been reportedly variable, estimates are that the ending stocks number will drop to 1.429 bb which is down from the USDA’s estimate of 1.452 bb.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report came in at the middle of the trade range for corn with 33 mb sold, but sales are behind last year.
  • In Argentina, the planted area for 23/24 corn was held steady at 7.3 m ha, and planting is now 7% complete.


  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning as the November contract sits just below the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • Today’s grain stocks report is expected to show a decline in soybean stocks with the average estimate at 244 mb which compares to this time a year ago at 274 mb.
  • In India, the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils, the production of oilseeds is expected to fall by 7.2% from a year ago due to poor weather conditions.
  • Brazilian soy exports are seen reaching 99 mmt in 2024 vs 98 mmt last year, and total soybean processing is seen at 55 mmt which compares to 53 mmt last year.


  • All three wheat products are trading higher this morning after KC and Minneapolis wheat made new lows yesterday as export demand remains sluggish.
  • US wheat is still not competitive on the global front and tenders are being passed to Romania, Russia, and other cheaper countries.
  • The average trade guess for today’s wheat stocks report is 1.772 bb, basically unchanged from last year’s 1.778 bb.
  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is now up 17% from last year with 30.5 mmt of grains harvested. 22.2 mmt of wheat have now been harvested, up 16% year over year.


Amanda Brill

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