TFM Morning Update 10-01-2026

CORN

Corn futures have found some temporary support as buyers step in following yesterday’s correction lower. December corn is 2-1/2 cents higher at $5.03-1/4, while March corn is also 2-1/2 cents higher at $5.18.
USDA reported September 1 corn stocks of 2.095 billion bushels, 177 mb above the average trade estimate and 544 mb above last year. USDA also reduced the 2025 corn crop by 57 mb. The larger-than-expected stocks figure is expected to translate into roughly a 230 mb reduction to feed and residual use in the revised September WASDE balance sheet.
U.S. ethanol production fell to 296 million gallons last week, down 6 million gallons from the previous week and marking the lowest weekly output in eight months. Production was in line with market expectations, with an estimated 99 mb of corn used for ethanol.

Soybean futures are trading slightly lower as the market continues to digest yesterday’s Grain Stocks report. November soybeans are 1/2 cent lower at $12.92-1/2, while January soybeans are 1/4 cent lower at $13.09.
The Grain Stocks report was neutral to supportive for soybeans, with 2025/26 production essentially unchanged at 4.261 billion bushels compared with USDA’s previous estimate of 4.262 billion. September 1 soybean stocks were reported at 315 mb, slightly below trade expectations and down from 325 mb a year ago.
Wet weather has slowed harvest across the western Corn Belt, with additional rainfall expected into early October. Iowa has harvested just 3% of its crop, 14 percentage points behind last year and 12 points behind the five-year average.

The wheat complex is trading higher across the board this morning. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 4-1/2 cents higher at $6.80-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 8-3/4 cents higher at $7.41-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 4-3/4 cents higher at $6.98.
In the Small Grains Summary report, USDA estimated 2026 all-wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels, 7 mb above the average pre-report estimate and 3 mb above the August estimate. However, production remains 23% below last year’s total of 1.985 billion bushels.
According to the Ukrainian farmers union, Ukraine’s wheat exports could decline further in October and November as the country’s advancing corn harvest takes up a larger share of available transportation and export capacity.

Matthew Lucas