TFM Morning Update 10-02-2023


  • Corn is trading higher this morning after a large selloff on Friday to end the month and quarter. The quarterly stocks report was not bearish for corn, and prices seem to be coming back.
  • Corn stocks came in at 1.361 billion bushels on Friday which was less than expected and 91 mb below the USDA’s ending stocks estimate.
  • Harvest made good progress over the weekend as rains were mainly confined to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Temperatures were hot in the western Plains and northern Midwest.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers of corn again by 23,791 contracts which increased their net short position to 168,606 contracts.


  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after big losses last week despite a grain stocks report that wasn’t particularly bearish. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • Friday’s soybean stocks saw 268 mb of beans on hand September 1 which was above the trade estimate of 242 mb, but still a very tight number.
  • There were 275 deliveries of October soybean meal for Friday and another 59 for Monday which added to bearish pressure.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds whittling away their net long position by selling 15,774 contracts. This leaves them net long just 30,058 contracts.


  • All three wheat products are trading higher this morning which is likely helping out corn. The government avoided shutdown which is likely supporting the market.
  • Friday’s Small Grains Summary was not helpful to wheat with US production being estimated at 1.812 bb for 23/24, the highest in three years.
  • Over the weekend, more Russian drones reportedly damaged grain storage facilities in central Ukraine in the City of Uman. On the other hand, five more ships are reportedly heading to Ukraine to take on grain through the Black Sea route.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds buying back a small portion of their wheat position by 413 contracts, reducing their net short position to 96,392 contracts.


Amanda Brill

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates