TFM Morning Update 10-03-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower to begin the day after a 12-cent gain yesterday, but prices are still rangebound and near their highest levels in months.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 82% of the corn crop was mature vs 70% a week ago and 73% a year ago as the dryness this season caused early maturity.
23% of the corn crop is reportedly harvested which compares to the trade guess of 25% and 15% a week ago. 53% of the crop was rated good to excellent which was steady with a week ago.
Chinese markets are on holiday this week, but they are still able to buy corn with a purchase from the US yesterday and more frequent purchases from Brazil.

Soybeans are trading lower as they struggle to find momentum as harvest begins despite extremely tight stocks. Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 23% of the bean crop has been harvested which compares to the trade guess of 25% and 12% a week ago. Southern states are further ahead with harvest.
86% of the soybean crop are dropping leaves compared to 73% a week ago, and 52% of the crop is rated good to excellent which was higher than the trade guess of 50% and 50% a week ago.
NASS reported that 169 mb of soybeans were crushed in August which was down significantly from the 184.8 mb in July as the prices of soy products falls.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC higher but Minneapolis still slightly lower. Wheat has been slowly trying to regain its losses from Friday.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA said that 40% of the winter wheat crop was planted which was in line with expectations and up from 26% a week ago. 15% of the crop is emerged.
Russia’s grain exports are seen at 1.6 times last season’s volumes at 17.7 million tons exported so far. Wheat shipments so far are at 13.5 million tons.
In the Southern Hemisphere, countries such as Argentina and Australia are facing very dry conditions which are stressing the wheat crops. Australia’s production is expected to be reduced further.

Amanda Brill