TFM Morning Update 10-04-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but within its tight trading range. Prices are already on the low side, but it has been good to see corn steady over the past few weeks with harvest ongoing.
  • Corn prices in Brazil have risen in September despite the end of the safrinha corn harvest and higher supplies as sellers have been reluctant to sell corn too cheaply.
  • A top US ethanol lobby is targeting California to approve a higher ethanol fuel blend of 15% to help lift demand.
  • In Brazil, the smaller first crop corn is making progress thanks to light rains but in Argentina, conditions are still too dry for early planting.


  • Soybeans are finally higher this morning after a big technical move yesterday in which the low from June 28 was tested, but prices immediately rebounded.
  • Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower. Soybean oil has been getting pressured from lower prices in the palm oil market, but soybean meal has been in a downtrend as well.
  • Weather over the weekend should be favorable for harvest, but in the North there are chances for sub-freezing temperatures.
  • Yesterday, China purchased 9.7 mb of soybeans which was encouraging given that they are on a holiday week. Overall, exports have been slow this season amid competition from Brazil.


  • All three wheat products are lower this morning as the trend lower continues. Last Friday’s grain stocks report kicked funds into further selling, and prices remain near the lowest levels in two years.
  • Yesterday, wheat managed to close higher amid a large selloff in the stock market and a new high for the year in the US Dollar Index, but those gains have not held.
  • China made a surprise purchase of US wheat yesterday of 8.1 mb which was encouraging and points to the US becoming more competitive, but Russian offers are still cheaper.
  • Two more ships have been tracked headed to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, and so far, 10 vessels have completed routes to those ports despite threats from Russia.


Amanda Brill

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