TFM Morning Update 10-06-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher as the market continues to hover near the psychological $5.00 level. December corn is 3-1/4 cents higher at $5.00-1/2, while March corn is 3-1/2 cents higher at $5.15.
Weekly USDA export inspections were within market expectations in Monday’s report. For the week ending October 1, U.S. exporters shipped 1.368 MMT, or 53.8 mb, of corn. Total corn inspections are currently running 4% ahead of last year’s pace.
U.S. farmers have harvested 23% of the corn crop, trailing the five-year average pace. Rainfall has significantly slowed progress across parts of the western Midwest, particularly in Iowa, although drier weather forecast across much of the central U.S. this week could allow harvest activity to accelerate.

Soybean futures are trading higher as the market looks to establish support following recent weakness. November soybeans are 5-1/2 cents higher at $12.86-1/4, while January soybeans are 5-1/4 cents higher at $13.02-3/4.
Soybean export inspections totaled 42 mb, in line with market expectations and above the 29 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s export forecast. Year-to-date inspections now stand at 146 mb, up 31% from a year ago, compared with USDA’s full-year forecast for a 10% increase.
Brazilian farmers had planted 7.3% of the expected 2026/27 soybean area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. Planting advanced from 3.4% the previous week but remained behind last year’s 9% pace.

Wheat futures are trading higher across the board this morning. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 7 cents higher at $6.99-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 8-1/2 cents higher at $7.50-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 5-1/2 cents higher at $7.14.
Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 11.1 mb, bringing 2026/27 inspections to 245 mb, down 35% from a year ago. Inspections remain below the pace needed to reach USDA’s 775 mb export forecast, which would represent a 15% decline from last year.
According to NOAA, growing areas of western Ukraine are facing significant soil moisture deficits ahead of winter wheat dormancy. Parts of western Russia are also reportedly too dry for favorable winter wheat establishment.

Matthew Lucas