TFM Morning Update 10-07-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading in a mixed fashion this morning. December corn futures are up 1/2 cent to 422-1/4 and March futures are down 1/4 cent to 438.
The FGIS can continue to release export inspections despite the government shutdown. For the week ending Oct. 2, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.599 MMT. Cumulative 2025/26 inspections have reached 264.1 mb, up 56% from a year ago.
The U.S. Dollar is retesting the highs from yesterday’s trading session as political and fiscal concerns outside the U.S. have foreign traders seeking a stable safe haven. Continued strength in the dollar could begin acting as a headwind to U.S. grain exports.

Soybean futures have started the day higher with November futures up 2-1/4 cents to 1020 and January futures up 1-3/4 cents to 1037-1/2.
China continues to shun U.S. soybeans as the trade war continues. The Trump administration is expected to announce a farmer bail out plan as early as today.
Brazil’s soybean planting is advancing at the second-fastest pace on record. Dry conditions have supported steady fieldwork, though the return of showers next week could begin slowing progress.

Wheat has started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1/4 cent to 512-1/2. December KC wheat is down 1/2 cent to 495, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.56.
Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 18.6 mb bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 374.0 mb, up 18% from last year. Shipments are running ahead of USDA’s projected pace, with total exports forecast at 900 mb, up 9% year over year.
Market analysts have estimated U.S. winter wheat planting progress at 50% complete as of Sunday. USDA’s crop progress report was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Matthew Lucas