TFM Morning Update 10-08-2024

CORN

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as the rally seems to have come to a temporary peak in last week’s trade. Prices are consolidating around the 100-day moving average, but better Brazilian weather and harvest pressure in the US are suppressing a further rally.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 64% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is unchanged from last week. 87% of the crop is mature which compares to 87% a year ago, and 30% is now harvested.
  • In Ukraine, SovEcon has cut the forecast for the 2024 corn crop to 23.5 mmt from 24.6 mmt in its previous forecast citing dry weather. The export forecast for corn was also cut by 1.1 mmt due to lower production.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybeans are trading significantly lower this morning as radar and forecasts continue to show rain falling in Brazil with an emphasis on Mato Grosso which has been extremely dry. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning as well.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed that the good to excellent rating in soybeans fell 1 point from last week to 63%, but was in line with the trade estimate. 90% of the crop is dropping leaves which compares to 91% a year ago, and 47% of the crop is now harvested.
  • In Brazil, soybean planting is 4.1% complete which compares to 7.8% last year and the 5-year average of 5.5%. In the largest growing state, Mato Grosso, planting is only 2.1% complete which compares to 14% last year at this time. Planting is certainly behind but should pick up pace as weather improves.

WHEAT

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning and are nearly unchanged. Wheat has had more supportive fundamental news that corn and soybeans recently with global weather issues.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the winter wheat crop is 51% planted which is below the average trade guess and compares to 52% a year ago. 25% of the crop is emerged which is on par with last year’s pace as well as the 5-year average.
  • SovEcon has revised the Ukraine 24/25 wheat crop higher to 21.8 mmt and has also raised exports due to strong EU demand. The EU has been too wet and in Australia too dry. The southern plains in the US have been too dry as well.

Author

Amanda Brill

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