CORN
- Corn futures are trading lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1-1/4 cents to 420-3/4 and March futures are down 1-1/2 cents to 436-1/4.
- Corn spreads are showing renewed strength on the front end, with the Dec–Mar spread narrowing to its tightest level since July. The move may reflect strong demand, producer holding, or tighter nearby supplies supporting the front months.
- The U.S. dollar is trading at a two-month high. Continued strength in the dollar will act as a headwind for U.S. grain exports.
SOYBEANS
- Soybean futures have started the day lower with November futures down 4-3/4 cents to 1024-3/4 and January futures down 4-3/4 cents to 1039-1/2.
- A key hurdle for U.S. soybean markets and potential trade progress with China is the planned implementation of port fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports, set to begin October 14. Analysts warn the new fees could hinder ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries.
- Private analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the USDA to lower its soybean yield estimate once the agency resumes releasing data.
WHEAT
- Wheat has started the day higher. December Chicago wheat futures are up 2-1/4 cents to 509-1/2. December KC wheat is up 2-1/4 cents to 495-1/2, and December MPLS wheat is up 4 cents to 5.59.
- Traders will not receive the scheduled monthly WASDE report due to the government shutdown, though private analysts continue to release estimates. A Bloomberg survey pegs 2025/26 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 880 mb, up from 844 mb in September, while global carryout is estimated at 265.9 mmt versus 264.1 mmt in the last USDA report.
- SovEcon raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop by 1.5 mmt to 22.9 mmt, citing higher yields. The group also lifted its 2025/26 wheat export estimate to 16.8 mmt.