TFM Morning Update 10-10-2023

CORN

Corn started off the day lower following the attack on Israel over the weekend and ahead of the WASDE report on Thursday. Prices have leveled off from Friday’s high.
Estimates for Thursday’s USDA report have yields slightly lower at 173.5 bpa compared to 173.8 bpa, and production at 15.121 bb which is also slightly lower than the last estimate.
Brazilian summer corn is reportedly 51.2% planted which compares with 44.5% a year ago and the 5-year average of 40.1%. The planted acres are slightly smaller than the previous year.
Indonesia is set to import 250,000 tons of corn for animal feed to anticipate the El Nino pattern and will source this corn from multiple countries.

Soybeans are starting the day lower as well and are above the level of support at 12.56-3/4 in Nov but dipped below that low overnight getting down to 12.54-1/4.
Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning and the recent selloff in the soy products is limiting processing returns and is likely slowing crush demand.
Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly yo 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb.
Brazil is now 10.1% planted which is nearly equal to the progress from a week ago. This comes as excessive rains and fungal infections in parts of the country limit progress.

Wheat is lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as it stays in a narrow trading range.
Thursday’s WASDE report should show a higher production estimate for US wheat near 1.812 billion bushels, but changes could be made on the demand side as well.
UN officials will visit Moscow to continue talks about the Black Sea grain deal, but so far Ukraine doesn’t seem to be running into much trouble exporting grain on their own.
While Argentina and Australia’s wheat crops are struggling with drought, Kazakhstan’s wheat quality is being hurt significantly by heavy rains.

Amanda Brill