TFM Morning Update 10-10-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1 cent to 417-1/4 and March futures are down 1 cent to 433.
The October WASDE report, originally due yesterday, was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown. The October report is critical for updating yield and production estimates as harvest progresses.
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower this morning after closing at a two-month high yesterday. Continued strength in the dollar will act as a headwind for U.S. grain exports.

Soybean futures have fallen overnight with November futures down 8 cents to 1014-1/4 and January futures down 8-1/4 cents to 1030-1/4.
China’s expansion of export restrictions on rare earth metals has created doubts that an agreement on soybean purchases can be reached.
The lack of guidance from the October WASDE report is pressuring the soybean market. Analysts expected to see a yield cut in the October report if it was released.

Wheat futures have started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1-3/4 cents to 504-3/4. December KC wheat is down 2-1/2 cents to 487-1/4, and December MPLS wheat is down 1 cent to 5.57.
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s wheat production estimate by 3 mmt to 23 mmt, which would mark a record high. The increase reflects strong yield potential and favorable soil moisture following above-average rainfall. For comparison, USDA’s latest forecast stands at 19.5 mmt.
Market intelligence firm Expana raised its EU soft wheat production estimate by 0.3 mmt to 136.4 mmt, still below USDA’s 140 mmt forecast. If realized, the crop would set a record high and come in 22.8 mmt above last year’s output.

Matthew Lucas