TFM Morning Update 10-12-2023


  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning as grains trade quietly ahead of today’s WASDE report which will be released at 11 a.m. central.
  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report have yields lower at 173.7 bpa and ending stocks lower as well at 2.148 billion bushels. World ending stocks are also expected to fall.
  • China is boosting their expected corn output for 23/24 to 288.94 mmt on higher yields. This would put output higher by 11 mmt than last year.
  • In Brazil, reports of restricted grain movement are popping up as drought conditions cause low water levels on the Amazon which has caused boats to run aground and get stuck.


  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is lower in the front months but higher in the deferred contracts.
  • Average estimates for today’s USDA report have yields at 49.9 bpa compared to 50.1 bpa last month with US ending stocks expected to increase, but world soybean stocks decreasing.
  • Low export sales this year have been the biggest hindrance to soybean prices with export commitments 32% lower than a year ago, but yesterday’s sale of 12.2 mb of soybeans to China and unknown may be showing that the US is entering its export window.
  • As in corn, the low water levels on the Amazon in South America are holding up soybean shipments which would be friendly to US exports.


  • Wheat is slightly higher this morning but still near its lowest levels in two years. The continuing problem is poor export demand as Russia sells its wheat cheaply.
  • Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for US ending stocks to increase from 615 mb to 646 mb, but that number could end up being higher.
  • China has been looking to import wheat after heavy rains damaged its harvest, and this occurrence could explain the surprise US sale of wheat to China last week.
  • England’s wheat crop has reportedly fallen by 10% to 12.81 mmt due to lower yields than expected, but planted acres were reduced as well.


Amanda Brill

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