TFM Morning Update 10-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher following Friday’s losses. December corn is 1-1/2 cents higher at $4.81-1/4, while March corn is also 1-1/2 cents higher at $4.95-3/4.
In Friday’s WASDE report, USDA raised its 2026 corn yield estimate by 2.7 bpa to 181.2 bpa, well above trade expectations. The higher yield pushed projected production to 16.034 billion bushels, up 234 mb from September.
Despite upward adjustments to demand, larger production pushed projected 2026/27 ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels, up 249 mb from last month. The stocks-to-use ratio increased to 11.3%, signaling a more comfortable supply outlook and adding pressure to corn futures.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning. November soybeans are 8-3/4 cents lower at $12.83-1/4, while January soybeans are 8-1/2 cents lower at $13.00-1/4.
In the October WASDE report, USDA raised its 2026 soybean yield estimate to 53.1 bpa, up from 52.8 bpa in September, while planted acreage remained unchanged at 86.9 million acres. Production increased to 4.562 billion bushels. Exports were raised by 10 mb, limiting the increase in projected ending stocks to just 5 mb at 315 mb.
Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean planting is advancing at a record pace, with roughly 20% of the projected area already planted as favorable rainfall supports fieldwork, according to Patria AgroNegocios.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning. November soybeans are 8-3/4 cents lower at $12.83-1/4, while January soybeans are 8-1/2 cents lower at $13.00-1/4.
In the October WASDE report, USDA raised its 2026 soybean yield estimate to 53.1 bpa, up from 52.8 bpa in September, while planted acreage remained unchanged at 86.9 million acres. Production increased to 4.562 billion bushels. Exports were raised by 10 mb, limiting the increase in projected ending stocks to just 5 mb at 315 mb.
Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean planting is advancing at a record pace, with roughly 20% of the projected area already planted as favorable rainfall supports fieldwork, according to Patria AgroNegocios.

Matthew Lucas