TFM Morning Update 10-13-2023

CORN

Corn is starting the day off higher on the heels of yesterday’s friendly WASDE report and has now posted nearly a 30-cent gain since its low on September 19th.
There have been continued reports of delayed harvest work as rain moves across a good portion of the Midwest, likely pushing the work to next week.
Yesterday’s WASDE report called corn yields at 173 bpa, below expectations, but total production was called near a record of 15.064 bb.
The South American weather pattern is still causing dryness in Argentina and northern Brazil while southern Brazil receives too much rain, and this could impact their production.

Soybeans are continuing to trade higher following yesterday’s much needed bullish WASDE report and with help from gains in both soybean meal and oil.
Yesterday’s report called soybean yields at 49.6 bpa, below expectations and last month’s estimate of 50.1 bpa, and ending stocks were kept at 220 mb, the lowest levels in 8 years. World ending stocks were reduced.
In Paraguay, planting is nearly 60% complete, but rain fall has been light and uneven and producers are waiting for more moisture before they finish planting.
Water levels on the Mississippi River have improved causing grain shipments to rise and barge rates to fall. Soybean shipments are up 53.1% week over week.

Wheat is continuing its higher trade from yesterday with support from corn and soybeans as the report yesterday was not particularly bullish for wheat.
Yesterday, the USDA said that US ending stocks increased from 615 mb to 670 mb due to a higher production estimate. Feed demand was increased by 30 mb to 120 mb.
With Australia’s dry weather, the USDA reduced the size of their wheat crop by 1.5 mmt to 24.8 mmt, down 38% from last year’s crop.
Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 31% from last year and is now at 35.6 mmt for the season starting July 1st.

Amanda Brill