CORN
- Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December corn futures are up 3-4 cent to 413-7/4 and March futures are up 1/4 cent to 429-1/4.
- The lack of USDA data continues to weigh on the market as traders take a defensive stance. Private analysts currently estimate U.S. corn yield slightly lower than the USDA’s 186.7, but expect feed and residual usage to decline 200 million bushels. If realized, this would increase ending stocks to 2,464 million bushels.
- The U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning after failing to break through overhead resistance on Friday. Additional strength in the U.S. dollar will erode U.S. grains’ competitiveness in the global marketplace.
SOYBEANS
- Soybean futures have started the week higher with November futures up 1-1/2 cents to 1008-1/4 and January futures up 2 cents to 1025-1/4.
- November soybean futures are trading at their lowest level since early October as renewed U.S. – China trade tensions have driven the market lower.
- On Friday, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, though the White House later indicated a willingness to reopen negotiations. Uncertainty remains over whether President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet for discussions at the upcoming APEC summit.
WHEAT
- Wheat futures have started the day mixed. December Chicago wheat futures are down 2-1/2 cents to 496. December KC wheat is down 1-1/2 cents to 481-1/2, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.52.
- Private analysts expect that if the October WASDE report had been released, USDA would have raised Argentina, Russia, and Canada’s wheat production estimates.
- SovEcon has raised its estimate for Russia’s 2025 wheat production, increasing it by 600,000 MT to 87.8 MMT. This compares to the USDA’s most recent forecast of 85 MMT. Additionally, Russia’s agriculture ministry reduced the wheat export tax by 35% to 318.6 rubles per metric ton through October 21 in an effort to boost export demand.
Author
Matthew Lucas