TFM Morning Update 10-15-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s slight move higher in overall quiet trade. December futures are down 1-1/2 cents to $4.11-1/2 while March is down 1-3/4 to $4.27-1/2.
The US inspected 1,130k tons of corn for export as of October which compared the 1,702k tons last week and 514k a year ago. A strong number, there will not be another report until the government is reopened.
The absence of key U.S. reports like the October WASDE, export sales, and CFTC added to bearish sentiment; Brazil corn futures also declined on a stronger real. Trade estimates U.S. corn harvest at ~44% complete, with yields slightly below USDA’s 186.7 bpa; weaker feed demand could boost carryout toward 2.464 billion bu.

Soybean futures are lower this morning with November down 3 cents to $10.03-1/2 and March down 1-1/2 cents to $10.22-1/2. December soybean meal is up $0.10 to $274.40 and December soybean oil is up 0.12 cents to 50.6 cents.
Pressure has hit the soybean complex as a result of increased rhetoric by President Trump that tariffs on China may increase, or as of yesterday that the US “does not need to purchase soybean oil from China” and is considering terminating that business.
As of October, the US inspected 994k tons of soybeans for export, which compared to 783k tons last week and 1,908k a year ago at this time. Year to date, inspections are down 26%.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat down 3-3/4 cents to $4.96-1/2, KC down 3 cents to $4.85-1/2, and Minn wheat down 1-1/2 cents to $5.52. Prices are 5 cents off yesterday’s contract low.
The US inspected 444k tons of wheat as of October 9 compared to 548k tons last week and 380k a year ago. Inspections are up 18.1% on the year.
Russia’s 2026 wheat acres are expected to be down 6%, and its current export pace is lagging USDA’s 45.0 mmt estimate, implying an active Oct-Jan export window is needed to meet the goal. Trade estimates U.S. winter wheat plantings at 66% complete.

Amanda Brill