TFM Morning Update 10-16-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading quietly higher to start the day in more sideways action. December is up 1/4 cent to $4.17 and March is up 1/4 cent as well to $4.32-1/2. So far this week, corn has gained 4 cents.
Brazilian corn production for 25/26 is estimated between 128.9 and 148.2 mmt with an average guess of 138.4 mmt as strong demand drives the expansion of acreage. This estimate is above the USDA’s most recent guess of 131 mmt.
Estimates for this week’s ethanol production report see production higher than last week at 1.079 million barrels per day and stockpile estimates lower at 22.628m bbl bs 22.72m a week ago.

Soybean futures are higher this morning following bullish crush numbers yesterday. November is up 4-1/2 cents at $10.11 and March is up 4-3/4 at $10.44-1/2. December soybean meal is up $0.30 to $276.20 and December bean oil is up 0.39 cents to 51.19 cents.
The NOPA crush report for September showed US soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging, given Chinese absence.
China has held off on large purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January delivery as a result of high Brazilian premiums. China still needs roughly 9 mmt of soybeans and could tap into state reserves to meet short-term needs.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $4.96-1/4, KC wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $4.85-3/4, and Minn wheat down 3 cents to $5.48. Chicago is still 4 cents off its contract lows from earlier this week.
Russia reportedly sees their grain export potential for 25/26 at 50 mmt and has already harvested nearly 132 mmt of grain and 90 mmt of wheat with harvest 91% complete. Russia has also resumed exporting wheat to Indonesia after trade negotiations.
In Australia, rains are forecast to increase in the second half of October along with cooler temperatures through the next few weeks. This weather pattern will be favorable for wheat development.

Amanda Brill