TFM Morning Update 10-17-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning as its downward slide continues and has seen December corn lose 13-3/4 cents so far this week. Yesterday’s higher prices were a result of support from a very large flash sale to Mexico.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production higher than last week at 1.046 million barrels per day which would compare to 1.038 last week. Stockpiles are estimated at 22.331m bbl which would compare to 22.154m a week ago.
Following the leaf hopper disease last year in Argentina that heavily affected their corn crop, there are already reports that producers will be shifting acres from corn to soybeans in many areas despite dryness earlier this season.

Soybeans are trading lower for the sixth consecutive day as funds pile back into short positions based on an improvement in South American weather. November soybeans have lost 33-3/4 cents so far this week, and both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Soybean basis levels in the PNW as well as in the heart of the Midwest have surged higher this week. Rumors of Chinese buying of US soybeans as well as harvest nearing completion are backing this encouraging sign.
In China, the soybean harvest in major producing area of Heihe is nearly finished and is expected to see a bumper crop harvest. While China has been a buyer of US soybeans recently, this could impact future business.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as pressure is seen in the grain complex is a whole over the past two weeks. Wheat has found some support at its 50-day moving average but also resistance up at its 200-day.
Significant rainfall looks to be in the cards for the southern Plains over the weekend. This highly important area of KC wheat country has been on the drier side for the last few weeks. Dry weather in the US has been a factor keeping wheat prices more elevated while other grains fall.
Funds have been net buyers of wheat in general since August and have not made many changes to their net short position of around 25,000 contracts in the past few weeks. In the past week, they have sold an estimated additional 6,000 contracts.

Amanda Brill