TFM Morning Update 10-18-2023


  • Corn is trading higher this morning following overnight strength in soybeans.
  • With only isolated showers expected through the weekend for much of the Corn Belt harvest progress should be able to push well beyond the 45% complete as estimated in Monday’s Crop Progress report.
  • Ethanol production set to be released today is expected to come in higher than last week at 1.024 million barrels per day according to estimates gathered by Bloomberg.
  • Safras and Mercado estimate Brazil’s 1st crop corn is 59% planted, this is 6% ahead of last year’s pace and the five-year average. 1st crop corn in Brazil historically accounts for about 25% of their total corn production.


  • Soybeans are trading higher again this morning as dryness concerns continue to build for major producing regions of Northern and Central Brazil.
  • River levels along the Amazon River basin have fallen to their lowest levels in over 100 years due to drought conditions. Rains are expected to be minimal in West Central Brazil for at least the next 7 days, replanting is likely due to the dryness in some key producing regions.
  • S&P Global forecasts US soybean acreage for 2024 will reach 86 million acres, up from 83.6 million in 2023.
  • Basis bids for soybeans at both US river terminals and processors have been steady to firmer recently despite harvest progress.


  • Wheat is trading higher this morning following corn and soybean prices which are rallying mostly on Brazilian weather worries.
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights projects 2024 US all wheat acreage at 48.7 million acres, if realized this would be 875,000 acres lower than the 2023 planted area.
  • European Union soft wheat exports since July 1st have reached 8.81 million tons, down 22% from exports at this same time last year.
  • According to Chinese Customs data September wheat imports were over 66% higher than September of 2022. Year to date Chinese wheat imports are up 53.6%.


Keegan Madigan

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