TFM Morning Update 10-20-2025

CORN

Corn futures are unchanged to slightly higher but are still above the 100-day moving average. December is unchanged at $4.22-1/2 while March is up 1/2 cent to $4.37.
In Brazil, corn prices are moving higher on the spot market as producers are focused on the 25/26 planting season and are less focused on closing deals. Values at ports have remained firm.
While the Commitment of Traders report is indefinitely delayed due to the shutdown, it is estimated that funds were buyers of 25,500 contracts of corn over the past 5 trading days. Funds are estimated to be short around 70,000 contracts.

Soybean futures are sharply higher to start the day on hope for a China deal. November soybeans are up 9-1/2 cents to $10.29 while March is up 10 cents to $10.60-3/4. December soybean meal is up $4.30 to $285.30 and December soybean oil is down 0.12 cents to 51.01 cents.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last Friday that he would meet with Chinese Vice Premier to avoid an escalation of US tariffs on Chinese goods. President Trump is also expected to meet with President Xi within two weeks.
Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 17,500 contracts of soybeans which may have brought them back to a small net long position. They were likely buyers of both soybean meal and oil.

Wheat is trading quietly lower with December wheat down 1/4 cent to $5.03-1/2, Dec KC wheat down 1/2 cent to $4.91, and Minneapolis wheat down 1 cent to $5.48-1/2.
In Australia, projections for the wheat crop continue to improve as harvest begins. Analysts have raised their estimates according to a Reuters poll due to better than expected yields. Estimates call for around 35.7 mmt of wheat produced or more.
Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 4,500 contracts of what which would leave them with a net short position of approximately 90,000 contracts.

Amanda Brill