TFM Morning Update 10-20-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher as the market finds support after entering technically oversold territory. December corn is 1/2 cent higher at $4.67-1/2, while March corn is 1-3/4 cents higher at $4.82-1/4.
Middle East tensions remain elevated after Iran-aligned Houthi forces carried out attacks in Yemen and claimed strikes against Saudi energy and infrastructure targets. The escalation has increased concerns over regional oil supplies and helped push crude prices toward recent highs.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as tensions with Iran remain elevated. Continued escalation across the region could keep additional risk premium in energy markets, potentially offering some support to grain prices through the biofuel demand channel.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning. November soybeans are 4 cents higher at $12.57-1/2, while January soybeans are also 4 cents higher at $12.72-3/4.
Scattered rainfall slowed fieldwork across parts of the Midwest last week, although drier conditions through the end of this week should allow harvest activity to resume. USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 64% of the U.S. soybean crop harvested, below trade expectations.
Harvest pressure continued to outweigh support from renewed Chinese demand. USDA confirmed private sales Monday totaling 114,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China, bringing confirmed sales to China over the past four days to 1.472 MMT.

The wheat complex is mixed, with the winter wheat classes posting gains while spring wheat trades slightly lower. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 4-1/2 cents higher at $6.59-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 4-3/4 cents higher at $7.04-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1/4 cent lower at $6.69-3/4.
USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed 63% of the winter wheat crop planted as of October 18, six percentage points behind the five-year average. Emergence reached 39%, compared with the five-year average of 43%.
Escalating Russia-Ukraine attacks continue to raise concerns over grain movement through the Black Sea. Recent strikes and disruptions to regional shipping infrastructure are keeping additional risk premium in wheat futures despite ample global supplies.

Matthew Lucas