TFM Morning Update 10-23-2023

CORN

Corn is unchanged to slightly lower this morning as trade moves quietly. Notably, prices moved up to the 100-day moving average on Friday but backed off, showing it as important resistance.
Crop progress will be released later today, and harvest will have likely crossed the halfway mark, but rains last week could have delayed some work.
In a dry area of Argentina, farmers are beginning to shift their plans for an early corn crop to plant soybeans instead on about 494,000 acres.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as net buyers of corn for the week by 3,821 contracts reducing their net short position to 108,870 contracts.

Soybeans are lower this morning as they get dragged down by lower soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher. Crude oil is lower on the day.
Soybeans have trended higher over the past few weeks thanks to South American weather and improving soy exports, but harvest is still adding some pressure to the market.
Brazilian farmers have planted 29.84% of their 23/24 soybean area which is far below the 37.6% planted at this time last year as drought causes some to wait for better conditions.
Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers, flipping their position to a net short one. They sold 4,150 contracts and are now net short 1,984 contracts.

The wheat complex is mixed this morning with Chicago relatively unchanged, KC lower, and Minneapolis higher.
There is some pressure on wheat today after beneficial rainfalls fell in drought stricken areas of Argentina which could boost production by millions of tonnes.
Ukrainian grain exports have fallen 30% year over year with just 8 mmt exported so far, and wheat making up 4.1 mmt of that, down 6.7% y/y.
Friday’s CFTC showed funds as sellers of just 72 contracts of wheat, increasing their net short position to 104,407 contracts.

Amanda Brill