TFM Morning Update 10-24-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning which would be the third consecutively lower day due to harvest pressure and yesterday’s crop progress report which saw harvest advancing.
Harvest was seen at 59% harvested as of October 22 which was in line with trade expectations and the pace from a year ago, but ahead of the 5-year average.
Yesterday’s big selloff in the cattle complex following the bearish Cattle on Feed report likely added some pressure to corn yesterday.
In Brazil, corn is now 63% planted which is ahead of the 5-year average of 58%, but their corn acres will be fewer than last year. In Argentina, just 18% of the crop has been planted which is down from the average of 29%.

Soybeans are working higher this morning after two consecutively lower closes with support from soybean meal and strong export inspections yesterday.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybeans at 76% harvested which was slightly lower than trade expectations of 77%, but above the 5-year average of 67%.
Soybeans were under pressure yesterday due to forecasts of rain in South America, but only light showers were reported with most areas getting missed.
Brazilian farmers have been reluctant to sell their new soybeans with prices so much lower than a year ago. StoneX has estimated that 25% of the new soy crop which is estimated at 164 mmt has been sold.

Wheat is trading lower this morning with KC posting the largest losses. SRW wheat has become more competitively priced which has gotten China’s buying interest.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that winter wheat is now 77% planted which was lower than the average trade guess, but up from 68% a week ago. 53% of the crop is emerged, up from 39% a week ago.
Ukraine says that it has shipped 700k tons of grain so far through the temporary export corridor in the Black Sea with destinations primarily to Europe and Africa.
APK-Inform has cut their estimates of the 23/24 Ukrainian grain crop to 53.4 mmt from their previous estimate of 54.2 mmt.

Amanda Brill