TFM Morning Update 10-24-2024

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning and are on track for a fourth consecutively higher close at this pace. The December contract is now trading back above the 100-day moving average as prices recover.
Estimates for today’s export sales show strong number in corn after flash sales have been reported in the last 6 straight days. Trade is estimating corn exports between 2,500k and 4,000k tons with an average guess of 3,130k tons. This would compare to 2,226k tons a week ago.
Yesterday, the US Department of Energy released its weekly petroleum report which showed ethanol stocks falling by 0.2% to 22.223m bbl, below analyst expectations. Plant production came in at 1.081 m barrels per day which was above expectations.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and are on track for a fourth consecutively higher close thanks to strong exports. The bearish argument is a large US crop and weather in Brazil that has made a significant comeback after a long stretch of drought.
The US ag attaché in Brazil is now estimating that the 24/25 soybean crop in the country will be 161 mmt. This estimate has been increased from 160 mmt in the previous estimate. While planting had a late start in Brazil, the pace has picked back up quickly with steady rains.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 1,400k and 2,400k tons with an average guess of 1,785k tons. This would compare to 1,703k tons. As in corn, soybean exports have been strong in the past few weeks.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. Some rains have fallen in Kansas and in the panhandle, but 20-30% of the area received rains between 1/2 and 1 inch while the rest of the area received less than 1/2 inch.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 350k and 650k tons with an average guess of 518k tons. This would compare with last week’s 504k tons and 381k tons a year ago.
The EU’s soft wheat exports have dropped 31% year over year as of Oct. 20 for the season that started on July 1, falling to 7.02 mmt from 10.2 mmt last year, according to a report by the European Commission.

Amanda Brill