TFM Morning Update 10-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after closing higher every other day this week so far, and the December contract is still on track for a weekly gain of around 13 cents, Strong export sales have been key support recently.
In Argentina, there is more rain expected in the forecast going into November after the country had a dry start. Estimates for total corn production are between 51 and 52 mmt, and the crop is reportedly 29% planted.
In China, a record corn crop is now expected as a result of higher yield thanks to fewer extreme weather patterns. More than 80% of Chinese crops have been harvested as of October 24.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with corn after the November contract gave back significant gains yesterday to post a lower close. For the week, Nov soybeans are on track to gain 18 cents. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
While strong export sales has been a big support to soybean prices over the past week, the prospect of a massive South American crop may dampen bullish sentiment. Despite Brazil’s rocky start, weather has improved dramatically.
Ukraine is expected to harvest a record soybean crop which will exceed 4.7 mmt while their corn crop is expected to be lower due to drought. Many producers favored oilseed crops this year instead of corn.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower, but wheat is on track for a neutral weekly close. The stronger dollar and prospect for rain in winter wheat areas may be weighing on prices.
In Turkey, analysts are expecting a 5.5% decline in wheat output for 2024 to 20.8 mmt. Total cereals output is expected to fall by 7.1% from the previous year.
According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, the recent heavy rains in the country were crucial to the wheat crop. It is estimated that between 30 to 90 millimeters of rain fell yesterday. Wheat is in its last few weeks of development before harvest in November.

Amanda Brill