TFM Morning Update 10-26-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 9 1/2; Soymeal up $0.14; Soyoil up 0.62.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 1/4 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.09; Soyoil up 1.25.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 82 1/2 in SRW, down 54 in HRW, down 23 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/4; Soybeans up 26 1/4; Soymeal up $14.00; Soyoil up 11.34.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 9% in SRW, up 17% in HRW, down -2% in HRS; Corn is up 16%; Soybeans up 5%; Soymeal up 1%; Soyoil up 29%.


Like what you’re reading?

Sign up for our other free daily TFM Market Updates and stay in the know!


Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal up 40; Soyoil up 8; Palm oil up 40; Corn up 5 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 1 ringgit (+0.02%) at 4128.

There were changes in registrations (-8 Soymeal). Registration total: 3,080 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 5 Soybeans; 96 Soyoil; 288 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 25 were: SRW Wheat up 7,306 contracts, HRW Wheat down 591, Corn up 10,617, Soybeans down 10,972, Soymeal up 3,134, Soyoil up 4,722.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Oct. 25 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.


  • CORN PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 68,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender for up to 138,000 tonnes which closed on Tuesday
  • CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased about 66,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal without issuing an international tender
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have started buying optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Tuesday, seeking limited shipment to two ports only
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday
  • RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased an estimated 31,200 tonnes of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and optional origins in an international tender for up to 90,100 tonnes which closed on Oct. 19
  • FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Importers in Thailand are believed to have purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced either from Australia or the Black Sea region in a tender which closed late last week
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 38,515 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, an official source said.


  • VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Sunday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival Dec. 10-30. Traders should submit bids for payment via 180-day letters of credit, GASC said.
  • WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is seeking 120,000 tonnes of barley in an international tender with the deadline set for Oct. 26, a government source said.
  • SUGAR TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, is seeking 50,000 tonnes of raw sugar of any origin on behalf of the Egyptian Sugar & Integrated Industries Company. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight and 180-day letters of credit, and it would choose between them. The deadline for offers is Oct. 29 and arrival is set between Dec 1-15 and/or Dec. 16-31.
  • WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Iraq changed the closing date of its international tender for 50,000 tonnes of wheat to Oct. 30 instead of Oct. 24


  • Spot basis bids for soybeans and corn shipped by barge to U.S. Gulf export terminals were steady to lower on Tuesday, despite rising costs for barge freight as shippers continued to struggle with low water on Midwest rivers.
    • Rains crossing the region helped to keep historically low river levels from dropping further, but far more precipitation will be needed before barge traffic can return to a more normal pace.
    • Low water on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers has reduced the amount of grain available to Gulf exporters, driving up export costs to uncompetitive levels.
    • “Much of the middle and lower Mississippi River is expected to receive at least 1 inch (25 mm) of rainfall over the next week, which will begin to replenish water supplies a bit. However, much more rainfall will be needed,” space technology company Maxar said in a daily weather note.
    • Barges for this week on the Lower Ohio River were offered at 2,800% of tariff, up from 2,600% a day earlier.
    • CIF soybean barges loaded in October were bid around 240 cents over November futures, down 10 cents from Monday, and November-loaded barges were bid at 210 cents over futures, down a nickel.
    • Export premiums for soybeans shipped in first-half December held at around 250 cents over November futures, while premiums for January shipments were up 5 cents at 210 cents over futures.
    • For corn, barges loaded in October were bid at 220 cents over December, unchanged from Monday, and November corn barges were bid at 175 cents over, down 5 cents from Monday.
    • First-half December corn export premiums were nominally quoted around 225 cents over futures, unchanged from Monday, while January loadings held at around 160 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans were steady to firm at interior processors and elevators around the U.S. Midwest on Tuesday.
    • The corn basis was flat around the interior.
    • But bids for both commodities were steady to weak along the region’s rivers, with low water levels limiting the amount of crops that can be shipped on barges to export terminals at the U.S. Gulf.
    • Farmers were continuing to bring in newly harvested crops that they had previously contracted to deliver to processors and elevators.
    • But fresh sales on the cash market were light, with prices below growers’ targets, an Ohio dealer said.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans rose at processors around the U.S. Midwest on Tuesday morning as dealers sought to entice farmers to deliver recently harvested supplies.
    • But country movement was slow, an Iowa dealer said, as growers had satisfied their cash needs from sales of soybeans they booked earlier in the year.
    • Most farmers were moving their crops straight into storage bins as they neared the tail end of harvest.
    • Strong profit margins for soymeal and soyoil boosted the demand for crush supplies at processors.
    • Soybean bids were weak at interior elevators and river terminals.
    • The cash basis for corn was steady to weak at interior elevators and processors and firm at ethanol plants.
    • Corn bids were unchanged at river terminals.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat held steady at grain terminals across the southern U.S. Plains on Tuesday, dealers said.
    • Farmer sales were slow, although some growers were calling to check on prices after weeks of inactivity, an Oklahoma dealer said.
    • Growers were looking for prices of $10 a bushel on the cash market, the dealer added.
    • Premiums for wheat delivered by rail to or through Kansas City rose by 10 cents a bushel for wheat with protein content ranging from 11.6% through 12.6% for the second day in a row, according to CME Group data.
    • Premiums were unchanged for all other grades of wheat.
  • Spot cash millfeed values held steady around the United States on Tuesday, dealers said.
  • Spot basis offers for soymeal were steady to weak at U.S. Midwest truck market processors on Tuesday, dealers said.
    • Offers were unchanged in the rail market.
    • On the export front, spot offers on both a CIF and FOB basis were unchanged but deferred offers firmed.
    • Demand from end users was routine, a Minnesota dealer said.
    • A plant in Lafayette, Indiana, was shut down for maintenance.
    • The basis at that processor was listed at $10 over December soymeal but a dealer said that no meal would be available for sale until Wednesday afternoon.

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 21 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen slightly higher than last week at 1.017m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 21.887m bbl vs 21.844m a week ago

EU 2022/23 soybean imports at 3.50 mln tonnes, rapeseed 2.21 mln tonnes

European Union soybean imports in the 2022/23 season that started on July 1 had reached 3.50 million tonnes by Oct. 23, against 3.92 million by the same week in the previous season, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports so far in 2022/23 had reached 2.21 million tonnes, compared with 1.52 million tonnes a year earlier, the data showed.

Soymeal imports over the same period totalled 4.94 million tonnes against 5.17 million tonnes in the prior season, while palm oil imports stood at 1.08 million tonnes versus 1.83 million tonnes in 2021/22.

EU sunflower oil imports, most of which usually come from Ukraine, were at 520,152 tonnes, against 474,615 tonnes a year earlier, the data showed.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 1.8%; Corn Imports More Than Double

EU soft-wheat exports during the season that began July 1 reached 11.15m tons as of Oct. 23, compared with 10.96m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

  • Leading destinations include Algeria (1.47m tons), Morocco (1.42m tons) and Egypt (1.17m tons)
  • EU barley exports are at 2.37m tons, compared with 4.01m tons a year earlier
  • EU corn imports at 9.04m tons, against 4.26m tons a year earlier

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching Up To 6.453 Million Tns In October – Anec


Funds Reluctant to Trade Grains Amid Black Sea Export Uncertainty

CBOT grain futures are mixed, with most active corn futures up 0.7%, soybeans gaining 0.9% and wheat down 0.2%. In general, fund traders have been reluctant to trade much volume with uncertainty swirling about the future about the Black Sea grain export corridor deal, as well as the back and forth of macro market indicators like the US dollar index. “Gains remain modest, with few fund managers willing to build a lot of ownership with the dollar still relatively strong and the VIX still near 30,” Arlan Suderman of StoneX says in a note.

USDA attache sees Argentina 2022/23 wheat crop at 15.5 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Buenos Aires:

“Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling. Corn exports in MY 2022-23 are projected at 37.5 MMT, 3.5 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate mainly due to a smaller forecast crop. Sorghum exports in MY 2022-23 are forecast at 2.2 million tons, with China being the primary destination.”

Malaysia Oct. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports to EU 270,680 Tons: SGS

Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.

  • EU imported 270,680 tons; +25.4% m/m
  • China imported 230,541 tons; +11.7% m/m
  • India imported 117,700 tons; -29.2% m/m

Argentina changes biofuel pricing in line with surging inflation

Argentina’s government has set new criteria for fixing the value of sugar cane- and corn-based bioethanol used in gasoline for domestic consumption, the country’s official gazette said on Tuesday.

The measure aims to adjust prices in line with the sharp rise in inflation in the country, which could exceed 100% this year.

The ministry of economy’s energy secretariat said in the resolution the prices “will be updated in accordance with and proportionally to the variation in the price of petrol at the pump”.

The resolution proposed the possibility of alternative pricing mechanisms in cases of substantial discrepancies with the biofuel production costs.

According to data from the energy secretariat, the value of sugar cane-based bioethanol is 88.24 pesos per litre, while the price for corn-based bioethanol is trading at 107.411 pesos per litre.

Argentina’s biofuel exports are on track to set a record this year, said a recent report by consultancy firm Investigaciones Económicas Sectoriales (IES).

“In 2022, sector activity will show an increase in production and sales for both biodiesel and bioethanol,” it said.



This commentary is provided by ADM Investor Services, a futures brokerage firm and wholly owned subsidiary of ADM Company. ADMIS has provided expert market analysis and price risk management strategies to commercial, institutional and individual traders for more than 50 years. Please visit us at or contact us at to learn more.


Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.



This message may contain confidential or privileged information, or information that is otherwise exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient, you should promptly delete it and should not disclose, copy or distribute it to others.


ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates