TFM Morning Update 10-26-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after four consecutively lower closes as prices are under pressure from harvest and some reports of better than expected yields.
There has been some outside pressure from equity markets as the strength of the US economy lately has trade concerned that the Fed will leave interest rates higher for a longer period of time.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed that the US increased production to 1.040 million barrels a day which was the 2nd highest ever for this time frame and the highest production in the past 9 weeks.
The average guess for today’s corn export sales are 905k tons as sales have improved slightly but the majority of exports have been to Mexico.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning with early support from higher soybean oil. Yesterday’s trade helped expand crush margins by another 10 cents.
Soybean meal has moved sharply higher recently due to the US picking up soybean meal export demand that was left by Argentina’s lack of production, but futures may have gotten too overbought causing the small selloff.
While South America remains very dry with the 10-day forecast showing very little moisture, there are some small chances for rain in key areas that could pressure soybeans.
Today’s export sales report is expected to be solid for soybeans with the average trade guess near 1,010k tons following good inspections and sales to China.

All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning, but KC wheat made a new contract low overnight so the buying may be more technical with oversold technicals.
A large amount of pressure in KC wheat has come from significant rains falling in the southern Plains recently which gives new winter wheat crops the moisture they need ahead of winter.
Ukraine is hoping to export at least 1 million metric tons of grain through their new Black Sea corridor for the month of October as their defense from Russia in the area gets stronger.
In the Czech Republic, estimates for this years grain harvest has been seen at 7.40 million tonnes in September which was above July estimates.

Amanda Brill